康臣藥業(yè)實(shí)施員工期權(quán)激勵(lì)和股票回購，維持買入評(píng)級(jí)，目標(biāo)價(jià)11.95港元
發(fā)布日期：2019-01-07 瀏覽次數(shù)：13783次
作者：張皓淵 時(shí)間：2019年1月4日
摘要：
2016年推出員工股份獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)計(jì)劃（目前剩余5500萬股可行權(quán)股份，行權(quán)價(jià)港幣4.01元）后，新的購股權(quán)計(jì)劃于2019年推出。我們注意到行權(quán)條件基于當(dāng)期KPI，分別于2020/2021/2022年可行權(quán)30%/30%/40%購股權(quán)數(shù)量。其中55%的購股權(quán)授予中、高層管理層和銷售。我們相信激勵(lì)計(jì)劃可以幫助康臣吸引和保留關(guān)鍵人才，我們也相信康臣將執(zhí)行更多的股份回購，基于其強(qiáng)勁運(yùn)營現(xiàn)金流（18年底4.6億港幣）和凈現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備（18年底人民幣7.6億元，相當(dāng)于其市值的20%）
截止昨日收盤，康臣藥業(yè)市值較50億港幣低~30%（50億市值為深港通市值要求）。我們認(rèn)為管理層將努力維持深港通地位。公司目前19年P(guān)E為6x，香港其他可比公司為12x。我們基于SOTP估值體系，給予公司目標(biāo)價(jià)11.95港幣（2019年P(guān)E 16x），較當(dāng)前價(jià)格有170%上漲空間。我們維持“買入”評(píng)級(jí)，公司的中成藥產(chǎn)品線具有一定防御性且擁有強(qiáng)勁的資本回報(bào)潛力（在更多回購前，公司分紅率預(yù)計(jì)達(dá)到5%）
What’s New:
Consun (1681 HK, BUY)) went up 6% yesterday on shares buyback and staff option plans amidst a sector-wide sell-off. It announced a 63mn share options plan (representing 6.3% of enlarged share base) to certain Directors and employees with exercise price at HK4.476 (6% higher than previous day closing price). It also initiated a share buyback program and repurchased 670,000 shares during last trading hour (accounted for 0.0766% of share base) at a total cost of HKD2.98mn (or HKD4.4/shr).
Our view
The new Share Options followed the last staff incentive program launched in 2016 (which now has 55mn exercisable shrs w/ exercise price of HKD4.01). We noted the vesting condition based on KPI during the period and exercisable amount for Apr 2020/21/22 are split into 30%/30%/40%, respectively, and 55% of options are granted to mid to high-level management and sales. We believe the incentive plan can help Consun in attracting and retaining its key talent.
We also believe Consun would conduct more share buyback, underpinned by its strong operating cash flow (HKD460mn at end-FY18E) and rich net cash (RMB760mn at end 2018E, 20% of current market cap).
As of yesterday’s close, Consun’s mkt cap is c.30% below HKD5bn (SZ-HK stock connection mkt cap requirement). We think Mgmt will aim to retain the SZ-HK stock connect status. Co. is now trading at 6x 2019E PER vs HK listed peers’ 12x, while we set SOTP-based TP at HK$11.95 (16x 2019E PER), with over 170% upside .
We maintain BUY rating as we think the stock offers a defensive TCM portfolio and strong capital return potential (we estimate 5% dividend yield before any further buy-back).
